This post is one of the several that have been "simmering" for days/weeks. When I initially started writing it I *thought* I had quite a bit to say on the subject. However, as time has passed, I've become less enamored with the topic. However, I had enough written that I thought I'd at least tie those thoughts together and post it anyway. So....
There was a post recently in one of the Transgender Google+ groups I'm a part of that caught my eye. It was a link to a video, but what drew my attention was actually some of the comments on it. Specifically a discussion of what percent of marriages survive transition. Unfortunately for me, I was busy at the time and never got to take part in the discussion. However, it did get me to thinking and as such I'm going to share some thoughts here.
Apparently there is a statistic floating around that says only 7% of marriages survive transition and the person that mentioned it maintained that the actual statistic was 45% of marriages survive. Divorce rates in general are apparently a very inexact science - more so than I would have thought; but looking around I've seen divorce rates in general quoted at anywhere from around 35% to in excess of 50% for first marriages and often even higher for subsequent marriages. Assuming those divorce rates are even at least semi-accurate, that would lead *me* to believe that marriages involving a transition probably survive less than the 45% number above; but I also firmly believe it's far higher than the 7% number above. But what I believe isn't really the point here, but rather the statistics themselves.
When I seriously started contemplating transition a couple of years ago - I say "seriously" as I had thought about it for nearly three decades, but never really felt it was an option until a couple of years ago - I did a *lot* of research as I've mentioned before. I looked into many things including the aforementioned divorce rates, not to mention suicide rates, the rates of regret for those that transitioned, and so on. What I found was that the numbers were all over the place. Now, that in and of itself didn't really surprise me as statistics seem to have a habit of doing that, but I really felt that the statistics surround transition were really extreme - I think the marriage numbers a couple of paragraphs up illustrates that.
So what's my point? Well, I guess it's that I'm frustrated. I really find it hard to not question the motives behind some of these stats. I believe that in general, people do try and find the best statistic to support their own views, but in this case it really seems like the anti-transition crowd has taken things to the extreme. As someone who has transitioned and has a wonderfully supportive spouse, maybe I'm naive, but I just have a hard time believing that only 1 in 14 - roughly the 7% figure from the video I mentioned above that caused me to start writing this - of marriages can survive a transition. And it's not just the marriages - suicide rates are often quoted as being extremely high - I've seen numbers quoted as high as 9 times the national average. I'm not saying that the numbers are not higher in the Transgender community - in fact I'm pretty certain they are. But I also think that the number is at least somewhat disingenuous in that the numbers I've seen usually don't differentiate the rationale behind the rate. By that I mean, how many of those who do try (or even worse succeed) in suicide do so because they can't get the treatment they need, or because they are discriminated against, and so on. Again, those that are anti-transition seem to want to gloss over those facts.
Of course there are other factors involved here. I believe accurate sampling is a problem for a couple of reasons. I'll use myself as an example here on the marriage front. I'm on my second marriage. My first one to M has been documented off an on throughout this blog; and I think I've made it pretty clear that we were never right for each other. We had sex, she got pregnant, we got married. If you had asked me 10+ years ago why we were divorced, I could have listed any number of reasons and they would probably all have contributed to it: she was too young, I was too naive, my family was a problem, her family was too - though to a lesser extent, and so on. If you had asked me even 2+ years ago when I chose to transition, my answers would have been the same. But now, while I still stand by all of those reasons, I do think that the fact that I am a Trans-woman did play a part in things. She honestly could not (and still could not) deal with the social stigma of being looked at as a "Lesbian". She wanted some "big strong man" and even if I had never chosen to transition, that person was not me. But even though now I feel it probably did factor into things, I don't consider it "the reason" for our divorce. However, depending upon how the question were to be posed to me, it would change my answer. If I were being surveyed and the question was "did your transition cause your divorce?", my answer would be no. But if the question were phrased just a touch differently such as "did your transition contribute to your divorce?", well then at this point I'd probably say yes as I feel it was a factor, just not the over-riding reason.
How many others can say the same kinds of things? In plenty of cases perhaps a transitioning spouse does lead to a divorce; but in how many cases is it really just the match that lights a fuse of bigger issues? For that reason alone, I question any divorce rate statistics when it comes to couples where there is a transition. Further, sampling has to be an issue. If there cannot be a consensus of what the overall divorce rates are, then how can there be one on a subset of that data?
I guess I should wrap this up, as like I said above the bulk of this was written weeks ago when I was a bit more fired up over things; but despite the fact that I've cooled off a bit over it, I am still frustrated over the fact that people seem to grab whatever statistic serves them best and tosses it out there often without any regards to whether or not it's truly accurate or not. Is it asking too much for people to make sure they have accurate - or least as accurate as can be - statistics before they start spreading them as fact?
As always thanks for reading my ramblings. :) Now I just need to get around to finishing the other half dozen or so posts that are currently in limbo.
- M
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